The Empire Report – Monday, October 14, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (1) THEFLYINGROCK rallied well from tough spots 2 and 3 back then gave it a good try on the front end last week, coming up 2nd best to a rival who has won 3 in a row – his top trainer/driver tandem teamed up for 7 wins last week, including a 4-bagger on Thurs. night…gets top billing in the opener. (4) PRETTY HANDSOME was very sharp before being scratched lame on 8/12, but has round back into form since then – he was in a no chance spot last start but did race well behind the streaking TAKE A CLOSER LOOK in his prior pair– upset chance with the right trip. (2) KOUNT BLASTER struggled for much of the season but has turned things around, picking up 3 wins since 7/26 – should be right in the hunt from start to finish. (3) CAROLINA BEACH ended up parked the mile upon arrival from PcD but somehow still took home a 5th place check – could land a better piece tonight with a kinder journey. (5) THREE GRAND is 0 for 27 in 2024 after winning 12X in 2023…but that’s due, in large part, to landing on horrendous trips seemingly every start (but still hitting the board fairly often) – never a bad bomb to at least consider. (6) KOOTENAY SANTANNA is a solid fit at this level but is just 1 for 15 at YR this year, and lands outside a bunch of sharp foes – tough spot. (7) NOWHERE CREEK A likely needs a much better draw to contend for a share. (8) THRASHER hasn’t been all that sharp, and now lands Post 8 off a sick scratch.
RACE 2
– (2) CAUGHTINALANDSLIDE was WAY out of it early on last week but still only lost by a couple of lengths, rallying from 7th to 3rd – he moves inside making his 2nd start for a barn that has just been insanely hot since August…he’ll likely be the better price of the 2 main players, so we’ll go with him on top. (1) CAPTAIN T HANOV ER has held form pretty much for the entire year, and was reclaimed last week by a barn for whom he just picked up a pair of very strong victories – the one to beat, though likely a pretty short price. (4) SOUTH POINT has been ok lately despite tough trips/posts – seems a notch below the top pair, but perhaps can round out the trifecta? (3) MANHATTAN ARTIST drops in for a tag, moves inside, and is eligible to grab a better share tonight. (5) LAST POUND is 0 for 10 locally this year but did hit board 6X – drawing outside the live players may limit his output, however. (6) VANDALISM figures to be too far back to do any real damage. (7) HIGH ON ROCKNROLL never wins, and needs a much better draw to even be a player for a small share
RACE 3 – (4) FUNATTHEBEACH N steps up a notch off a pair of easy wins but this is a level that’s well within his comfort zone (even if he’s lost a step or two)– we’ll give the 10YO the edge over the 11YO (3) NONE BETTOR A. The latter wasn’t at his best here at the end of the summer but it’s not like he was “terrible” – a couple of sharp tries at PcD may have helped the $1.2M earner regain some confidence…and that could make him very dangerous here. (1) KINGSVILLE hasn’t won in a while but the bigger concern is that he has just looked off his best lately – definitely a spot where he could perk up and be part of the equation, though. (5) IGNATIUS A really disappointed as the heavy chalk 2 back but he did rally nicely (for 4th) last week, from a tough spot– decent value option if you think there could be some action up front tonight. (2) WATTSUP SUNSHINE A adds Lasix tonight and that may explain a couple of recent dullish efforts – willing to use in exotics. (6) TWIN B RISENSHINE drops to a more comfy level but has the misfortune of drawing outside several solid players – minor share? Both (7) WALKINSHAW N and (8) YOROKOBI N are good right now, but they’ll be coming from way back and that’s not likely to work here
RACE 4 – Good race: (6) SCRIBBLERS rallied nicely from well back to be a close 4th in his local debut – was well backed in his next, used hard, and came up a game 2nd best to the sharp, perfect trip winner…he’ll need some trip luck from Post 6, but could offer some good value on top. (3) AROUND MIDNIGHT was a game first over (close) 3rd two back, then built off that mile with last week’s impressive first over score – legitimate threat to repeat. (2) IM A POWERPLAY A couldn’t extend his winning streak to 3 last week, worm down by #2 in the lane after cutting the mile – could easily rebound with a victory tonight. (5) BILL HALEY N looked super in that win 4 back but in his typically inconsistent fashion, hasn’t been nearly the same the last 3 weeks – always worth a look if the price is long enough. (4) JUST ENUFF STUFF was a perfect trip 2nd two back but hasn’t won in some time – prefer to use him underneath. (1) MOVIN ON UP beat the bottom class 2 back, faltered in his last and faces much tougher tonight. (8) FINAL CHEESERECIPE is very good at this level but was unable to get in play from a similar spot last week, and faces the same fate tonight. (7) MY CARBON COPY N is 1 for 35 the last 2 years and draws Post 7, up in class
RACE 5 – (4) MIND HUNTER has just been a new horse since changing barns on 8/6, going 7-5-1-1 - he comes off jogburgers in 1:51.2 & 1:51.4, and the road to the winner’s circle still goes through him. (3) BECHERS BROOK A was claimed yet again last week and steps up a notch off a trip of close 2nds from the worst posts – maybe he can grab a trip and pull off the upset? (1) DECISION DAY may deserve a pass for his last, as he was bothered on turn three – he’s a question mark at this level, but the rail draw helps his chances for a piece. (5) SOUTHBEACH HANO VER used a good trip to grab 3rd last week and his overall form is solid – ok for underneath. (7) SHAKESPEARE was super in last week’s victory but he’s lacked consistency this year, and now gets stuck with Post 7. (6) TUFFEN UFTOWEARPINK appreciated the barn change last week and converted with a front end score – steps up, draws poorly, and may have trouble replicating that effort. (8) GENTLE GIANT has gone some huge miles recently but draws Post 8 off a dud last week. (2) CENTURY ENDEAVOR drops and draws well, but does seem off form
RACE 6 – (3) SEMI TOUGH hasn’t won in some time and hasn’t been on his “best” game…but it’s not like he’s been “bad”, either – he gets in pretty soft tonight, and the good draw should allow Bongiorno to handle him very aggressively – feels like the one to beat. (1) SHINE A LIGHT finished with pace from Post 8 off the qualifier so it was no surprise to see him win from the rail last week – can be a player here, even moving up a peg. (5) IKES DRE AM was driven aggressively in all 4 local starts, hitting board in 3 of them – chance for a piece here too. (2) BRAE VIEW BONDI A has been camera shy locally for the past couple of years but this is the kind of spot where he can definitely grab a piece, with any decent trip. (4) GREG THE LEG probably needed those few weeks off as his form had definitely deteriorated– he qualified back nicely, but it’s hard to say if he’ll be ready for his best right off the bat. (6) FRANKIE FRANKIE was no factor in his first try at this level but did have Post 8 – would consider here for 3rd/4th. (7) GREAT SOMEWHERE just hasn’t come close to replicating last year’s 10 win season and now lands Post 7. (8) SLING SHOCK had a useful tightener last week, but unfortunately lands all the way outside again
RACE 7 – (3) CAMARA MOMENT wasn’t quite as sharp in his last pair but he was also stuck first over to VERDU N & ADAM TWELVE…he’s gone some big miles vs. better, and we’ll give him a chance to rebound with the class relief. (2) LEONIDAS A just never did find his FFA form this year but he’s still a legitimate player at these levels – he comes off a useful tightener (2nd off the qualifier) and could have a big say here. (1) PEACE OUT POSSE puts his 3 race winning streak on the line and while he’s facing a few classy rivals in here, he’s still sharp enough to be taken very seriously. (4) DEETZY turned in back to back solid efforts and could add some value to the exotics. (6) THUNDER HUNTER JOE has been inconsistent at best this year but he drops in class, and may be worth a look at what figures to be a big price. (7) BRUE HANOVER won at $2.10 two starts back but was a dullish 4th last week – he can go with these on his best effort, but tonight’s draw will likely hurt his chances. (5) KEAYANG KAMIKAZE A was conservative off the layoff and may take the same approach vs. these. (8) FAMILY RECIPE had no real excuse 2 back, was no factor in his last and is stuck with Post 8 tonight
RACE 8 – (5) BIRTHDAY has really been on his game lately, and can be forgiven for getting a little tired late last start after getting seriously roughed up – the 3 weeks off is definitely a concern, but we’ll still give him the tepid vote. (2) ROCKNROLL RUNA A has been incredibly inconsistent/unreliable lately but he didn’t earn over half a million dollars the past 2 years by accident– very dangerous ANY week that he show up in the right mood. (1) COV ERED BRIDGE had a promising try off a bad date 3 back, disappointed when aggressively driven in his next but did finish well off an easy trip last week – too classy to ignore from this spot. (4) CHURCHVIEWFRANKL IR wasn’t a threat in his 2 starts at this top level but he did finish very alertly (from tough spots) both times – may land a better trip tonight and may be able to be a more serious player. (6) NANDOLO N is very good right now, but could be looking at more traffic on the rim than he’d like. (8) HIMSELF N gets banished to Post 8 after beating these 3 in a row but those were all with good trips, from inside posts – could be looking at a MUCH tougher time tonight. (7) MY ULTIMATE BYRON A has done a very nice job holding form at this top level but faces an uphill battle with the terrible draw. (3) BOILING OAR has been away for 2 months and figures to need a start or two.
RACE 9 – Very tough finale! (6) ITALIAN LAD N is definitely sharper than he may look on paper – he’ll be a good price, and is one of several with a chance in here (7) GUNG HO has looked better with some class relief at PcD after chasing much better here for a bunch of start – threat, despite the draw. (2) MIDNIGHT THUNDER drops, gets a switch to Kakaley, and draws inside – could be a player tonight. (8) PAT MCGARRY A was 2nd in in NW20000 when last seen here – recent PcD form is just ok, but barn has been way too hot to not give him at least a look. (4) HICKFROMFRENCHLICK was a little short at the end returning from the layoff 2 back but then weakened off a 2 hole trip last week – threat on his best, but be careful about taking a short price. (5) POUND FOR POUND has been close to his best for some time – insist on a good price if considering him on top. (3) EMINEM HANOVER drops, gets post relief, and isn’t a bad bomb for longshot fans (1) DIAMONDBEACH turned in the form-reversing victory 4 back but was unable to build off that – definitely leaning towards others.