The Empire Report – Thursday, May 2, 2024 – Race Analysis
The Empire Report – Thursday, May 2, 2024 – Race Analysis
RACE 1 – (4) ALL CHAMPY took good tote action last week (3rd start back off the long layoff) and was up for the
aggressive try, delivering the front end score – he loves to win races, and we’ll see if he’s ready now to go on a little
streak. (1) MAX drops in for a tag after several solid tries here this year vs. fields that may be a bit better than these
– dangerous late if Marohn works out a good trip for him. (2) PERRON landed on a beautiful trip last week and used
it to pick up a 2nd behind the very sharp winner – he’s still winless on the year, but a logical threat for a smaller slice.
(5) ILLINI EARL made an early miscue arriving from PcD but did put in a nice recovery after that – could add some
juice to the exotics with a clean trip. (6) DRACO S is a solid fit in this class but wasn’t sharp in his last and draws
poorly for tonight– maybe a minor share? (3) J S HOPSCOTCH just never looked “right” last week and it’s possible
that he’s starting to tail since leaving a barn that he did all his damage for – feels a little risky right now. (7)
DARBYSHIRE shows some decent form out of town vs. some solid stock – would have liked his chances a lot more
had he drawn better for his YR debut. (8) WILLY WALTON has had a decent season so far, but faces a tall task from
Post 8
RACE 2 – (5) KEG STAND showed little in his first couple of starts this year in NJ but he was much sharper last
week (in his YR debut), showing a big burst of speed from the final turn to kick home a winner – he’s banked nearly
$600K but still fits this class (via the “NW12PM” condition), and has to be accorded the edge in this compact field.
(5) HERODOTUS is a very talented horse that has thrived in his few local starts (5-3-1-0) – IF ready, he may prove
the one to beat...but he’s been away since December, so it’s hard to know for sure just how tightly he’ll be wound.
(2) SEVENSHADESOFGREY has always been an enigma, having the ability but often his own worst enemy – he’s
clearly clocking right now, but tonight’s class jump may slow him down just a bit. (1) GAELIHILL had a useful start
last week, after missing 3 weeks (after a clunker on 3/28) – look for a much sharper try tonight, with a chance for a
good piece. (3) JULA MUSCLE pack has finally started to pick up his game recently, but facing easier – we’ll see if
he’s able to continue to thrive vs. these somewhat tougher foes.
RACE 3 – Tough race: (3) ON THE VIRG has been burdened with 5 straight horrible posts, but finished alertly
each time – he finally get a better draw, and his pilot will certainly give him a chance...definitely a good value horse
in a wide open affair (1) GENIUS MAN was trapped too long last week but did finish well, after the fact– he’s
unreliable for sure, but does grab his share of wins every year – could be a good spot. (2) KERFORD ROAD has
now taken 4 in a row for a barn that has gone from 3% winners to over 20% (since the beginning of April) – clearly
has to be feared, but also feels vulnerable. (4) WON LAST FEELING blew past a tiring leader last week, swelled up
and grabbed his first win in some time – we’ll see if he built up enough confidence for a chance at 2 in a row. (6)
HURRIKANEKINGJAMES races well every week, but hasn’t been able to win in a awhile – seems better used
underneath (than on top), especially from Post 6. (8) HUDSON PHIL gets his 4th straight bad post – he took off the
gate the last 3X, but maybe Brennan will see this as an opportunity to blast hard...good bomb if he can improve at
the start. (7) GLACIS is an ok bomb for 3rd/4th, but he’ll need plenty of trip luck even for that, from out here. (5)
HURRIKANE GEORGIE has been well off his game for some time
RACE 4 – (5) SWAN IN MOTION shipped in very sharp but with his “class” a question mark – his excellent 2nd
last week suggests that he DOES fit nicely with these, and we’ll try him on top tonight...since the price should still
be good. (3) NOWS THE MOMENT gets an extremely rare inside draw, thanks to a couple of “no factor” efforts –
it’s POSSIBLE that he’s just a bit off form right now, but it’s also possible that he’ll be right back on his game with a
chance to get aggressive again – he’s won too many of these to not get another chance. (4) CREDIT CON can be a
frustrating horse to predict, capable of big efforts but with his share of lesser miles mixed in – would be happy to use
IF the price is decent. (2) P L OSCAR was a very good 2nd last week, making the classy KEG STAND work hard to
beat him – never a bad one to throw in underneath. (1) HIGHLAND MOWGLI is solid right now, has speed from
the pole but also may prefer to be in a bit easier. (6) I GET IT has done solid work since arriving from DD 5 starts
back, but he finally gets an outside post and that could hurt his chances tonight
RACE 5 – (3) MANCLANE comes into this off a pair of 8 hole 3rds and gets major post relief for tonight– deserves
top billing, though this is definitely not an “easy” spot. (6) LIGHTFOOTEDLEGEND has been sharp ever since
returning for his 2024 campaign – he beat the top choice 2 back, can race from off the pace, but will need at least a
bit of trip luck to get it done from Post 6. (2) THE BALLYKEEL DEAL upped her game significantly upon arrival
from Canada to one of our top barns – she was 2nd best to a classy winner last start, and a good trip puts her right
back into the hunt tonight. (1) YES would probably like to be in a little cheaper (and did make a break in his last at
PcD) but he gets a terrific draw for his YR return, and may be able to grab himself a small share. (8) BLUEBIRD BI
SHOP was hammered at the windows last week (2nd start for our leading barn, dropping into claimers) and gave it a
big try from Post 8, only weakening at the end – this is definitely a tougher field, but he’s still worth considering for
exotics if the price creeps up. (4) BAR COINS still seems to be trying to find his form after 3 starts back – eligible
to pop off a good one at any time, though others do seem more likely for tonight. (5) FLIP THE SWITCH recently
rattled off 4 in a row but he does seem to be tailing at the moment. (7) HOMER HALL probably needs a much better
post to be a serious player with these types
RACE 6 – NAADA Amateur Spring Series: (1) MUSCLE DAN is always a threat to blow up at the start but IF he
can get away cleanly, he can be a major threat tonight (as evidenced by his front end score at Monti 2 back) – worth
a play if the price is fair. (4) JUST A PASSENGER has hit board in 4 of his last 5 Amateur starts, and was parked
the mile (on an off track) in the other – he hasn’t WON in a while, but still looms a very real threat for tonight. (3)
DOO WOP KID goes for a trainer/driver that has been doing some major damage in these races lately – any decent
trip makes him a very live player (5) JIVE NINETY FIVE changed barns for his last start, was absolutely hammered
at the windows, went right to the top but broke on the lead off turn three – willing to consider IF the price climbs up
a bit. (2) BACARDI gets a good draw, was racing well not long ago, but does seem a bit off his best right now – a
wake up call could put him into the hunt. (7) CALL ME THEFIREMAN may be able to leave enough to find a seat
but he figures to have a few live players in front of him – minor share? (6) BEACON BEACH is now 11-0-0-0 on
the year – waiting for some better efforts. (8) CYCLONE MAXIMUS is the outsider, both literally and figuratively
RACE 7– John Brennan Trotting Series Consolation: (4) DYLADMAR was sitting a close pocket behind SEA CAN
last week (at 35-1!) when he went offstride on the final turn – he was 2nd to TACHYON the week before, and just
may be good enough for a chance at an upset tonight...though probably not at 35-1. (5) IMMANUEL K S is another
possible upsetter – he just missed to WARRAWEE YANG in Leg 1, was 2nd to SEA CAN in Leg 2, and finished
well from an impossible spot last week – a good trip makes him a legitimate threat. (6) SEA CAN was picked up by
the nation’s leading barn last November, then went on the shelf after a parked-the-mile win at Northfield – returned
in time for this series, and won his last 2 legs after finishing 2nd to TACHYON in the first leg – the deserving
favorite tonight, but the top pair will offer better wagering value. (2) MOHATU AS began his 4YO campaign in this
series and has raced well all 3 starts – a quick getaway (and good trip) increases his chances of landing somewhere
on the ticket. (3) DEADLINE HALL has been solid, picking up a pair of 3rds and a 4th – may be a notch below a
couple of others, but a small piece is within reach. (1) CASSIUS HANOVER also seems just a notch below, but a
good trip from this spot could yield some minor spoils. (7) WICKENBURGH was sharp for a few starts but broke 2
back then was in a hopeless spot last week – this spot isn’t any better. (8) BONTONI DEGATO S had the rail in all 3
legs and hit board each time – faces an uphill battle tonight, however
RACE 8 – John Brennan Trotting Series Final – good race! (8) ROYALTY BEER will obviously need a lot to go his
way to win from out here but he DOES have good speed and doesn’t need to make the lead to have a decent chance
(he can rally, if he just can improve his position at the start) – he’s been an Open contender all year, was very sharp
in his 3 series legs, and worth considering at a big price tonight. (1) BY THE BOOK had excellent Stga. form before
arriving for the series and has raced well in all 3 starts – if things get testy up front, he could land on a trip that puts
him in play at the end. (5) RESOLVE TO WIN wired ‘em the first week, then was able to score on the front end
from Post 7 in his next – finished well from a hopeless spot last week, and he has a chance to land a good share (at a
nice price) with the right trip. (6) WARRAWEE YANG shipped in riding a 4 race winning streak and extended it to
7 with a trio of series wins – can’t knock his form or his connections but his post MAY cause some difficulty, and at
least leave him a bit vulnerable at a short price. (2) TACHYON has been in career form for much of the year,
including the first 2 legs – he wasn’t himself last week, however, and that makes him risky at a short price tonight.
(4) FERRETTI has been solid all 3 legs but his lack of speed could make him prone to a tough trip tonight – maybe
he can rally late for a small share? (3) OPTRIX feels a notch below some of the better ones in here, and did make a
break last week. (7) CRAZY BROTHER JIM seems unlikely to replicate last week’s 41-1 shocker
RACE 9 – John Brennan Trotting Series Consolation #2: (7) COVENTRY HALL actually qualified for the 1st
Consolation but barnmate IMMANUEL K S finished a few points higher and took that spot – he lands in a softer
field as a result, though gets a pretty terrible draw – we’ll give him a tepid nod, hoping Bartlett can work out a good
trip for him. (5) BLACK TIE BASH wasn’t at his best in the first 2 legs but raced much better last week – very
logical player here, but don’t take too short a price on a horse facing a somewhat uncertain trip from off the pace. (1)
MYCROWNMYKINGDOM came into the series off a good looking front end score but just wasn’t at his best the
last 3 starts – maybe the rail (and overall easier field) will help him find one of his better efforts. (6) LAVA FIELD
was no real threat in his series tries but he may be able to use his speed tonight, and that could help him produce a
better effort – decent bomb for exotics. (3) YOU GOT IT has a couple of recent excuses but still seems a notch
below a couple of the others – another possibility for the bottom of exotics. (2) STRONGERWITHLINDY started
his 2024 campaign in this series and just wasn’t ready for that – has 3 starts under his belt now, gets a good draw,
and may be a little closer at the end tonight. (4) CAL MILES N SHELL avoided Leg 3 and picked up a win vs.
much easier instead – leaning towards others. (8) LOS BALLYKEELAMIGO isn’t clicking at the moment
RACE 10 – (1) PERFECT VIXEN started the year as an afterthought at the bottom levels in Stga...but since
moving to her current barn she’s been a different animal, climbing through the classes and recently picking up a win,
2nd , and a pair of 3rds at the Invitational level – she’s not a cinch here, but the rail does give her the edge. (2) NO
MAS DRAMA has been wildly unpredictable this year – her “best effort” makes her a big threat from this spot...but
it’s almost impossible to know if we’ll actually see it tonight. (6) P L NOTSONICE endured a terrible trip in her
local debut but picked up a sharp win and 2nd in her last pair – would probably have been the top choice if not for the
draw, but she certainly has a chance to win here, if things go her way. (5) PARISO started off with 3 excellent tries
after shipping in for her new barn but wasn’t as effective off the class jump last week – she’s probably a good fit
with these, and we’ll get a clearer picture after tonight. (4) IMA DIAMOND BABE raced pretty well in all 3 local
starts – she seems a hair below a couple of the others, but it would hardly be a shock to see her around at the end. (3)
LADY JETER is winless in 13 starts this year after a 2 for 32 season in 2023 – tough one to take on top at this level
RACE 11 – (1) LAZ has been very sharp since returning for his 4YO campaign – he was ignored at the windows
from Post 7 last week but still paced a BIG final half to be right there at the wire – worth a play with the move inside
(4) BIG DREAM FELLA has hit board in 7 of his last 8 starts, making a break in the other – he came up with a BIG
effort to just miss last week, racing first over after missing 3 weeks – very dangerous threat! (2) URIEL BLUE
CHIP remains a very difficult horse to predict as he HAS ability, but also struggles to function properly in at least
half of his starts – will probably stick with others on top, since he does tend to be overbet. (6) AIRY SHADOW
shipped in off a fast Monti win and delivered a big effort here as well, making the top, sitting the pocket, then
rallying up the cones to just miss – will need some things to go his way from Post 6, but still worth considering for
exotics. (7) FINAL CHEESERECIPE beat several of these last week but had the benefit of drawing the pole, and
being able to cut the mile – make sure to get a pretty nice price if looking for hm to do the same from all the way out
here. (3) CENTURY IGLESIAS goes for a new barn after using perfect trips to beat easier in his last pair – may find
this spot a lot tougher. (5) JK STANDINGOVATION seems destined for minor spoils at best.
RACE 12 – (4) OUTSIDE THE FIRE is a VERY talented trotter, and ships in off a solid 2nd in a sizzling 1:51.3 mile
at Chester (after winning his previous pair in NJ) – IF he trots he’ll be extremely tough to knock off...but note that
he broke in all 3 previous Yonkers starts this year – be careful! (2) DWS POINT MAN was surprisingly dull last
week but the addition of Lasix tonight probably explains why – look for him to bounce back with a big one. (5) SHA
RE THE WEALTH shipped in sharp (vs. cheaper) in PA and was an excellent 2nd vs. the 40s last week – faces even
tougher now, but may be sharp enough for a share. (7) EPOS OSTERVANG DK gets a terrible draw but he’s hit
board in almost every start for TWO YEARS, and has found ways to overcome bad spots in the past – always a
good one to include in exotics. (3) STEUBEN HANOVER definitely does his better work vs. a bit easier but a good
trip puts him in the hunt for a good piece against these too. (1) STORMONT DIVIDE has won 5 in a row in PA but
he hasn’t raced in nearly in nearly 4 weeks, and will take on strong older foes in his YR debut – feels a bit risky
here. (6) HAT TRICK MARLEAU draws outside a bunch of live players and figures to be somewhat of an outsider
here. (8) TOP ME OFF wasn’t close to “right” last week and now lands Post 8 – wait for a better scenario