Monday Empire Report

soaofny • December 11, 2023

The Empire Report - Monday, December 11, 2023 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (2) LOUS THE ATTITUDE got a much better draw last week, took plenty of $$ and made short

work of the competition - a similar effort would give him a good shot to make it 2 in a row for our leading

trainer/driver tandem. (1) STRIKING IMPACT never got close to the action last week but generally is a

solid player with these when he draws inside - logical threat. (3) KOUNT BLASTER raced well from a pair

of impossible spots upon arrival at YR so it was no surprise to see him do well with the move inside last

week (just missed 2nd) - chance to land on the ticket once again. (4) CAUGHTINALANDSLIDE had been

racing well most starts before throwing a dud last week - we'll see if he can bounce back tonight (or if he's

tailing right now). Both (5) TWO FACED and (6) DP REALORDEAL used ground saving trips to rally in

the lane for good pieces last week - either could do the same tonight with a similarly easy journey. (7) STO

NEBRIDGE REX really should have been 2nd last week - willing to forgive him for that, but tonight's

draw figures to leave him at a serious disadvantage.


RACE 2 - (1) SHINE A LIGHT wasn't at his best in his last pair, but still picked up a 2nd and a 3rd - he

drops another peg while drawing another rail...and this may be a spot where he can get it done (but don't

take a very short price on top)! (4) KASHED UP A returns to YR off a confidence building win over

cheaper in PA - he's won here in the past, and definitely worth considering tonight if the price is right. (2)

HAMMERING HANK opened daylight and looked like a clear winner last week but got a little tired late

and ended up in a DH for the top slot - maybe he can be a little sharper with a close up stalking trip? (3)

TWIN B TUFFENUFF was a big "go" when parked the mile at Stga. 2 back but made up for it with a front

end score in his last - makes his first local start of the year tonight, picks up Kakaley and could offer some

value. (6) ULTIMAROCA cut the mile last week off the class drop but faded in the lane - drops again, but

may not be sharp enough right now to handle these either. (7) CADILLAC BAYAMA backed through the

field in his local debut but likely bled, as he returns tonight on Lasix - he surely fits with these ability-wise,

but is likely looking at a very conservative steer under the circumstances. (5) ROLLING WITH SAM fits

NW5000....will wait for him to try his luck in THAT easier class next start.


RACE 3 - (5) BIG DREAM FELLA was handled very aggressively in his first start for new connections

but gave way and tired - was allowed to relax the next week and was MUCH better, delivering the "brush

and crush" victory- will likely be favored to make it 2 in a row. (2) GANDOLF THE BLACK was a winner

in his local debut but then disqualified after the judges held him responsible for the stretch interference

between two horses behind him - came back to be a solid first over 2nd best the next week, and should be

able to have a big say tonight, as well. (4) JUST ENUFF STUFF is almost the opposite of the top choice -

he tripped out to win his local debut (first time Super Siblings), but then tired in his next when used a lot

harder - eligible to rebound here with another easy journey. (1) FINALLY FRIDAY shows a few recent

wins at Plainridge but may have been facing a bit easier - debuts locally for a new barn, and we'll see how

he goes from this good spot. (3) CAPTAIN MIKEY moves inside and may be eligible for improvement -

leaning a bit more towards others, however. (6) CROSS CREEK was unable to get in play from a similar

spot last week. (7) FOX VALLEY PATRIOT went an improved try last week, the latest from his barn to

perk up...not sure how much damage he can do from out here, however. (8) PINE BUSH MONSTAH lands

Post 8 after backing through the field from the pocket in his last.


RACE 4 - (1) REAL PEACE beat the 40s three back, then his board in his last pair....but like barnmate

SHINE A LIGHT, just hasn't been quite on his absolute best game - he's still the one to knock off from this

spot...but another to be careful about if the price gets too short. (3) ARTIST BEST gambled on coming off

the cones and swinging wide on the final turn last week and it paid off, as he charged home for the victory -

he can be pretty unreliable from start to start, but will be a legitimate player here if he brings his best. (5)

ALOTBETTOR N hasn't been looking as good in his last few starts but he drops in class and does have 9

wins this year - have to respect the possibility of a wake up call. (6) LOORIM LAKE A finished decently

last week but from too far back - may end up in a similar spot tonight, but still worth considering if the

price is good enough. (7) SULLIVAN was really good for a while but does seem to have fallen off that top

game - tired on the lead dropping to 30s last week, and now goes from the rail to Post 7. (4) HIGH ON RO

CKNROLL is now 0 for 13 locally on the year - minor share only. (2) GLACIS is 1 for 17 this year and that

win came at the bottom level (after going 1 for 26 last year) - minor scraps only.


RACE 5 - (4) BILL HALEY N went a very good 8 hole try in his first start back off a 4 month layoff -

could only manage an even 4th in his next, but that was a much better field than this one - feels like a good

spot tonight. (7) BALLERAT BOOMERANG was unable to get involved from the back in a hot mile last

week but picked up a win and a 2nd in the starts before that - almost have to give him a look here at that

20-1 ML price. (3) PEDRO HANOVER is a logical player for a barn going well but he backed through the

field on 11/20 then was scratched injured from his last - a little tough to justify him being the ML favorite!

(5) REIGNING DEO finished ok after being caught in a final turn blindswitch last week - would consider

using underneath, but his 21-1-1-2 record this year makes him tough to use for the top slot. (6) PAT STAN

LEY N caught a very soft spot last week and was able to deliver the front end score - we'll see if he can

step up and be as successful with these tough ones, as well. (2) HEART ON MY SLEEVE has a few good

recent miles but may just be a little cheaper than the main players in here. (8) HEART OF DIXIE finished

steadily for 4th last week and does fit at this level - tonight's draw is an obvious issue, however. (1) LONG

WEEKEND A has the pole but just looks to be somewhat overmatched at this level.


RACE 6 - (4) URIEL BLUE CHIP shows SOME success in Canada and now lands with our leading trainer

- but what's REALLY interesting is that Gingras opts off TWO other horses that he recently scored blowout

wins with (#1 and #5) to handle THIS newcomer...maybe we should trust his judgment? (1) PANETTONE

HANOVER obliterated this class (with Gingras) 3 back, then faced OLDER 40s (from terrible posts) in his

last pair - would have been the top choice if not for the presence of #4, and Gingras' preference to drive that

one tonight. (5) FULL SUPPORT was a 6 length winner here in this class 2 back (with Yannick), and just

got roughed up a little too much last time - very logical player. (8) STAY HAPPY has done nothing but

good work in her 4 starts since joining this barn so it's a bit surprising to see her dropping in for a tag, and

facing MALES as well - maybe her connections just want to take advantage of her big 3YO filly allowance

late in the year, but we should get a clearer picture after tonight. (3) ALL ATTITUDE didn't seem to enjoy

being handled aggressively last week so he'll probably revert to his off the pace style tonight - license to

rally for a piece of this. (6) PEPPERMINT MAN finally had an issue-free local outing and delivered a very

nice win as a result - gets a new pilot and a tough post for tonight, so insist on a good price if looking to try

him on top. (2) WE SHALL SEA broke 2 back then was dull in his last - too many other sharp ones in here.

(7) SHUFFLE UP HANOVER is a solid performer in this class, but may be really hurt by the draw tonight.


RACE 7 - (7) IDEALSOMEMAGIC A looked like he might be slowing down a bit (after 15 wins and

almost $400K this year) but he was an excellent 2nd in last week's Open behind the razor sharp winner -

gets Brennan on board tonight, and the pair have enjoyed success together...can overcome the draw with

just a bit of trip luck. (6) HEMSWORTH N was Kakaley's surprising choice over DESPERATE MAN last

week and could only watch in disbelief when DESPERATE MAN paced by him at 3/4s despite a :26.3 third

panel - drops tonight, but has the misfortune of drawing in with #7- main danger. (3) CRANBOURNE N

has been finishing solidly from impossible spots and does get some post relief tonight - he also catches a

couple of Open rivals, and that may leave him looking at a smaller slice, even with the better spot. (2) LOU

S SWEETREVENGE can be very inconsistent... but even if he brings his best tonight, he may still be

looking at only a smaller slice. (1) ROCKING JUKEBOX continues to race "well", but he's not "raging"

like he was not long ago - may be a notch below a few of these right now. (4) CERTIFIABLE has been

gradually tailing a bit, and would need a bit of a wake up call to threaten for a top prize here (even though

his lines certainly don't look bad). (5) CHANTEE has put together a strong season but would need things to

just fall apart here to be a late player. (8) NOME HANOVER recently had 7 wins and a 2nd from 8 starts

but finished last after moving up to this much tougher level, and could be in the same boat tonight.


RACE 8 - It's pretty clear that both (4) COVERED BRIDGE and (3) DESPERATE MAN should have been

assigned the two outside posts tonight but somehow the race office allowed them to draw for Posts 3-7

along with 3 other lesser foes...and as fate would have it, they ended up with the best possible spots - hard

to not go with these classy performers for the top 2 slots under the circumstances. (7) SONNY WEAVER N

is in career form, and a win last week at Chester extended his winning streak to 4 - he's sharp enough to

handle the jump to our Open level, but landing Post 7 (with the top two choices drawing 3 and 4) figures to

make his task tonight pretty formidable. (5) PEACE OUT POSSE went a mile last start that was

unfathomably good - he was under wild urging for a quarter of a mile before making the top in :26.3 but

rather than be tired later in the mile, he actually DREW OFF by more than 5 lengths (with the runner up

winning as the favorite the next week) - as good as that effort was, however, he'll still need to prove that he

can go a mile like that against these much tougher foes. (6) SEMI TOUGH was able to control the action

against a much softer bunch last week and grab the victory - faces a tough task trying to rally from well

back tonight, though. (2) JAHAN HANOVER is racing well these days but this group is probably out of his

comfort zone. (1) KARLOO BRADLEY N raced well in his 7 U.S. starts but makes his first start in 6

weeks tonight, and in a tough field - prefer others this week.


RACE 9 - Good race: (3) TUGGIN ON MY HEART really should have been able to win from that spot

last week but perhaps it took him a little too long to find his momentum after shaking free in the lane up the

inside - he's probably the most versatile player in here, and we'll give him the narrow edge tonight. (5) MIC

KY GEE N gambled on staying INSIDE last week and found himself loaded with pace in the lane with no

room to show it - he's struggled to WIN races this year, but is worth a look tonight if not overbet. (4) THR

ASHER was well meant last week but got a little tired at the end - chance to get it done here with the right

trip. (1) SETH HANOVER isn't usually one of our top choices but he's was actually pretty sharp last week

and draws the pole tonight - worth considering, at least for exotics. (8) SAILBOAT HANOVER tired badly

as the 2/5 choice on 11/27 (racing off a short layoff) but was a different horse for his new barn last week,

pacing over the field in the lane to score the upset (and outkicking the top choice)- he'll be a big price again

if you think he can find a way to reach from Post 8. (2) OSTRO HANOVER went a promising mile 2 back

when 2nd (after being scratched lame 2 starts in a row) but was a bit dull in his last - needs to bring his best

effort for a chance to make some noise here. (6) GOTHIC ROCK won in this class 2 back but it was a

much softer field - seems to be in a little too tough here, but his barn is going too strong right now to

dismiss him too quickly. (7) THINKBIG DREAMBIG was a well meant pocket winner last start but this is

a MUCH tougher assignment.


RACE 10 - (2) RJS SPORTS IMAGE went off his game for a while but is clearly back on it right now -

looks for 3 in a row and while he loses Gingras tonight (to #5), he goes back to our leading driver (who has

probably won 5X this year with him) - faces a couple of sharp ones, so be careful if he ends up overbet. (1)

SHAKESPEARE returns to the barn (once again) that recently won 3X with him, and also gets Brennan

back on board (who won 3 straight with him) - pretty hard to leave them off your ticket! (4) MY MIKI BE

ACH may be the sharpest of all right now (3 race winning streak) but he's another that loses Yannick

tonight, and may have the top pair blasting hard to his inside - would still want to include him if his price

creeps up a bit. (6) TUFFENUFFTOWEARPINK has remained sharp through some tough spots and was

able to pick up 2nd last week with the help of an easy trip - may not be as fortunate tonight. (3) RB was no

threat last week and seems up against it tonight, as well. (5) AMERICAN CLASSIC sees Yannick show

loyalty to the leading barn in the nation but he's missed a month (off a horrible line) and would be hard to

back tonight. (7) TJS INDY PACER draws Post 7 after missing 3 months - just observing tonight.


RACE 11 - (1) IMA HAPPY FELLA GB appeared to have a good chance vs. much better last week but

Stratton elected to go from a "full leave" to a "full retreat" and his fate was sealed early - now drops down

to the basement, moves inside, and will be major threat either on the lead, or from the pocket. (4) IM A PO

WERPLAY A started the year 1 for 25 but is now 2 for 26 after a barn change before his last- ships in from

Fhd. to face better, but also goes from his owner in the bike to Gingras...the main danger. (2) CAVIART

ROCKLAND had an excuse 2 back but then really disappointed in his last - too soon to give up on him, but

still leaning to the top pair for the win slot. (7) MOONLITE DRIVE N never looked "right" last week but

that may have been completely attributable to an equipment issue - not a bad late night bomb to consider.

(8) GINGER TREE PETE is hard to like on paper, but does get a big barn change - another good one for

longshot fans. (5) WILLIAM HANOVER was never in it last week but did LOOK a bit better - maybe

3rd/4th? (6) HEISMAN PLAYER has been away 4 months and draws poorly - just watching, for now. (3)

LYONS PEGASUS returns from NJ where he's been on the dull side.

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