Friday Empire Report

December 16, 2022

The Empire Report - Friday, December 16, 2022 - Race Analysis

RACE 1 - (1) MY ULTIMATE STAR A really struggled in his first 2 U.S. starts - raced a little better in his

3rd but was REALLY improved last week, giving the favored winner all he could handle - seems ready to

pick up his first stateside victory. (2) AIR FORCE HANOVER has been a "chronic disappointer", but he

actually raced pretty well last week despite a difficult trip - legitimate chance from this spot. (6) ON THE

VIRG was well meant last week and almost finished 2nd - sharp enough to contend for a piece, but will

have to overcome the outside draw. (4) KERFORD ROAD A has a couple of "ok" tries since dropping out

of the 50s - definitely a chance for a good piece, but will need to be better if he wants a shot at the top

prize. (5) ROCKINMYSHOE blasted from Post 8 last week, got too hot and folded badly after giving way -

figures to resort to off the pace tactics here, and that gives him a chance to rally for a minor piece. (3)

PROVOCAT IVEPRINCEN is a streaky sort that's clearly struggling right now - prefer to see some better

signs before hopping back on his team. (7) SOUTHWIND MOROCCAN teases with a good one here and

there but his record this year (24-1-1-5) suggests that this will be a pretty tough spot for him. (8) DEAL

THE CARDS is having all kinds of trouble getting anything going since returning 5 starts back.


RACE 2 - (7) PICARD A dropped to this level 2 back, got the top from Post 8 and just missed at the end -

was stuck racing from the back from a tough spot last week but still finished well for 3rd - assuming

Kakaley can get him away to a (much) better start tonight, he'll have a decent chance to beat these. (5)

MARTY MONKHOUSER A dropped to this level last week and raced much better, grabbing the pocket

and finishing 2nd behind the runaway winner - legitimate threat tonight. (1) UNICO LEGEND N is finally

racing every week but he's still looking for his first 1st or 2nd of the season (he's 13-0-0-6) - good spot to

grab a decent piece. (3) LINCOLN BOULEVARD rallied well for 4th last week and has a couple of other

decent tries here as well - chance for a small share. (2) VEL LARRY really weakened in the stretch last

week but he was involved with the hot early pace and did have license to get a little tired - has a chance to

outperform that 12-1 ML price. (6) YS SUNSHINE tends to be sluggish early in the mile and tonight's

draw may see him pretty far back early on - might only be able to rally for a minor piece tonight. (8)

CASHNCAM has done good work at this level but really wasn't at his best last week, squandering a picture

perfect trip - tough to back him from Post 8 after that effort. (4) SNAP CALL draws better, but still seems

unlikely against these.


RACE 3 - (3) EHRMANTROUT had been holding his own with much better not all that long ago- he

really enjoyed the big class drop last week, romping by open lengths....this class is well within his comfort

zone as well, and he does seem sharper right now than his main rival(s) in here - deserves the edge. (2)

WINDS UN RICKY is capable of beating much better than these too, but his current form is a little shaky -

would be no surprise at all here, but don't take too short a price. (4) ROCKIN JUKEBOX gets some class

and post relief tonight, and seems next in line should the top two falter. (1) MONTY MONO is just "ok"

right now, but he's looking at an easy trip from this spot and a small piece is within reach. (5) MANKAT

was a game winner 2 back and in a no chance spot last week - seems a bit below the main players, but may

still be able to land a minor share. (6) CHIEFS BEACH steps up after failing to beat lesser a few times - the

tough draw makes it even harder to like him for anything more than a minor share. (7) WAIMAC ATTACK

N is 0 for 20 here over the last 2 years, and 1 for 38 over the past 3 -- seems like a pretty rough spot! (8)

KNOCKING AROUND is just 2 for 39 here over the last 2 seasons and draws Post 8.


RACE 4 - Tough race: (3) SULLIVAN was an ok 3rd dropping to this level last week behind a pair of

sharp ones - catches a field full of question marks tonight, and perhaps this could be a winning spot for him

(1) MARINER SEELSTER is the biggest question mark in here - put together career years at ages 12 and

13, but was scratched sick on 11/1 then didn't qualify back until 12/9 - he takes a suspicious drop for his

return and it's possible that he'll jog here, fail to function...and everything in between! (2) KENRICK N is

rock solid at this level but he's another question mark, away for 23 days after a sick scratch - hard to know

just how ready he'll be for tonight. (4) CLASSIFIEDMATERIAL has done some good work at this level

but does seem to be tailing a bit since a recent claim - mixed feelings about his chances here. (5) SWAGAS

AURUSREX doesn't feel like he's on his best game right now but there's always a chance he could save

ground then rally late for a piece. (6) THOR AND DR JONES broke 2 back then was no factor last week -

he drops from 40s to 25s and one can only guess if perhaps he has a bad wheel. (7) MY MIND IS MADE

UP hasn't been terrible, but he also hasn't been nearly sharp enough to consider from out here - a class drop

would probably suit him. (8) FOX VALLEY INFERNO does his best with easy trips and he's not likely to

get one from Post 8.


RACE 5 - (1) GINGER TREE LIZ was super for a good stretch earlier this year - she hit a rough patch for

a while, but has definitely been trending in the right direction lately - she won with Bartlett from the rail 2

back, and we may see some deja vu tonight. (2) KATYS DELIGHT has been sharp in her 3 starts since

arriving from Canada, but steps up off a loss for the 2nd straight week - still seems good enough right now

to be a player, though. (3) KAT really upped her game after changing hands in September but she took off a

month in the middle of her form spree, and it's possible that she may not be 100% for tonight - mixed

feelings. (7) BEST HEAD WEST always seems to get derailed every time it looks like she may be getting

back towards the outstanding form she had earlier this year - can never count her out at this level, but

would still need a decent price to use her on top from out here. (6) LINCOLNS GIRL N may be a little on

the cheaper side but she's raced well in both starts since arriving here....and at big prices -- decent bomb for

3rd/4th. (4) HEAVENISSOFARAWAY picked up a win vs. cheaper in PA 2 back and seemed to build off

that last week, picking up a 3rd here - maybe she can land another small share? (5) DC BATGIRL figures

to attract attention off class drop but she may just be too far off form to suddenly become a player - leaning

toward a few others. (8) ITZPAPALOTL finally started to get her season going, even if took until

November - she's being listed here on the bottom, but only because she draws Post 8, up in class - eligible

to race better than that if the right trip comes her way.


RACE 6 - (3) MOHAWK WARRIOR has a couple of sharp recent efforts, and lands in a field with no

stickouts - we'll go with him on top, but make sure to get a decent price if using him on top (as he's had a

hard time winning races this year). (4) DA GHETTO WIZARD was an okay 5th last week off the layoff -

should be tighter tonight, and he's good enough for a chance to beat these on his best game. (1) MOONLIG

HT SHADOW will no doubt take plenty of $$ and be aggressively handled - that didn't work 2 starts back,

however, and there's no guarantee that he'll be able to beat these either. (2) CENTURY IGLESIAS wasn't

bad in his local debut last week (4th) - okay to consider for a piece here too. (5) KAUAI KING is very

comfortable in this class, gets some post relief, and may be ready to come up with a better effort - decent

value horse for exotics? (6) BLUEBIRD RECON hasn't been sharp in some time - drops all the way to the

basement now, but that may not be enough to make him a serious player. (7) NOT A REPLICAA adds

Lasix, but he'll need to really improve on his current form to be a player from out here. (8) TIDAL SHARK

has really been struggling for a long time.


RACE 7 - (7) APEX SEELSTER dropped to this $25K level last start and was able to get the job done

from Post 8 - draws another terrible post for tonight but meets nothing particularly sharp in this field, and

has a real chance to take another. (4) UNDERTAKER hasn't raced here much in the past 2 years but he did

some good work at Yonkers in 2020 - his barn is in en fuego right now, and he's probably one worth

including on your tickets. (1) SHOREVIEW hasn't been looking too good in his last couple but he drops

below the level of the claim, draws the pole and is at least eligible for a bit of a wake up call. (6) GOTTA

MINUTE N was ok in his first local start (NW7500) then caught a fast mile last week - the move to 20s

could help his cause, and he may be able to add some value to the exotics. (3) ROCK N TONY used his

speed 2 back and was able to pick up a 2nd - his overall form is clearly lacking, but he may be able to sit

close enough for a chance at a small piece. (8) AWESOMENESS seems to pace the same gear throughout

the entire race most weeks - it's led to a lot of smaller pieces, but that could be a bit tougher from all the

way out here (2) ROLL WITH JR just hasn't been good in some time - will need a quick turnaround to be a

player tonight. (5) BARRYWHITE HANOVER is 1 for 34 this year and probably not even close to his

"best" form right now.


RACE 8 - (4) DELITFULCATHERIN N probably isn't at her absolute peak form right now but she's not

too far off it - gets a much better draw than the past 2 weeks, and Stratton can probably find her a better trip

for tonight - good spot to get back to the winner's circle. (6) UPTOWN HANOVER has really upped her

game the last few months and the 4YO has blossomed into a legitimate Open mare - not the best draw for

tonight, but she's still worthy of a look at the right price. (7) MORNING HAS BROKEN can be a little in

and out but she was feelin' it last week, and blew by powerfully in the lane - she may not attract much

attention from out here, but a live trip would give her a chance to tally for a piece, (3) DRAGON ROLL is a

little hard to gauge right now - the mega-classy mare had gone off form for a while, but she did pick up

wins (vs. much easier) in her last couple - hard to say if she's good enough right now to go back to battling

these tougher types. (1) DISARONNO HILL had several good starts here before coming up a little flat in

her last - has to move up off that loss, and the rail may not be enough to help her cause. (5) MAN DONTF

ORGET ME was a game winner vs. a bit easier in her last couple - steps up, moves outside a bit, and loses

Stratton....leaning towards others (2) WAITFOREVER N jumps out of the NW6 ranks to take on this much

tougher competition - she's obviously in outstanding form, but will still need to prove it against these.


RACE 9 - Good race! (3) VILLAGE JADE just missed here on 10/27 then just missed again last week -

she's been very good for this barn, and may finally be able to visit the Yonkers winner's circle....but it won't

be easy against a few of these tough ones. (5) ROCKNROLL ANNIE turned in her weekly solid effort last

week, holding them all off except for the hard charging winner - she's been a threat on a weekly basis lately

and usually goes off a pretty decent price. (1) ANDRA DAY started to thrive again after joining this barn

this summer, and will surely appreciate dropping from the Open tonight - very logical threat in this spot,

but also figures to be overbet. (2) BABS JANSEN probably would like to be in a little easier but she's good

right now, draws well, and can be right there if the trip goes her way. (7) CRISP MANE shows form in

Ohio and PA that suggests she'll be a perfect fit here - she'll go for a new barn tonight but she's listed at

10-1 ML with Bartlett, and that makes her worthy of consideration. (4) ALTA MADEIRA N had some road

trouble last week or she might have been closer - this bunch may be a little too tough for her, however. (8)

JIVE DANCING A shrugged off a disappointing try 2 back to rebound and win last week - tonight's class

jump and 8 hole do figure to slow her down, however. (6) SOUTHWIND JAVA was 2nd the last couple of

weeks but still doesn't seem to be hitting on all cylinders just yet for her new barn - tough spot tonight.


RACE 10 - (3) REYS A RUCKUS was sent off at 51-1 for his local debut but was driven like one of the

favorites, and almost pulled it off - the price will surely come way down tonight, but should still be good

enough to make him worth a play. (4) SPORTS BETTOR is still winless on the season but ALMOST got it

done last week with the drop to 15s - can't "love" his chances tonight, but he does have to be respected off

that last mile. (1) TOATSMYGOATS raced well here a few years back but hasn't been seen here in some

time - he ships down from Monti showing very consistent form, and should be able to have a say with these

too (in his current form). (5) AMERICAN WAY has a big "FOR SALE" sign as he drops in for the bottom

tag off an ok try vs. better - if a wheel hasn't fallen off, he should be able to make some noise against these.

(7) FARMERS TAN is a strong player in this class but comes into tonight off a sick scratch and lands far

outside - could be a bit vulnerable here. (2) THIRD POWER tired last week but seems capable of a bit

better - maybe 3rd/4th. (6) ATLANTIS was claimed on 10/28 from a young lady that has been winning

races at an incredible 30% clip this year...and immediately stopped functioning -- waiting for some more

encouraging signs before considering, (8) FOLLOW YOUR HEART had to re-qualify after a trifecta of

"distanced" lines - we'll at least wait for a reasonable draw before giving him a look again.

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