The Empire Report - Thursday, August 17, 2023 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (4) LOVE YOUR WORK A has been facing similar across the river and coming up with some
big efforts - he doesn't really show much gate speed on the program, but that doesn't mean that Bartlett
won't be able to get him off the car in good shape - worth a good look in tonight's opener. (1) ROLLING
WITH SAM couldn't sustain his bid first over last week but his overall recent form is pretty solid, and vs.
better than these - very logical threat from this spot. (5) KINGSVILLE (listed at 3/2 ML) will deservedly
take plenty of $$ off the class drop - he has a chance here for sure, but he hasn't won in a long time and
figures to be overbet. (2) ADAM CROCKER A drops from 40s but he's lost plenty of times vs. easier than
these - probably looking at a smaller slice here. (3) ROCKAPELO has only beaten TWO horses in his last 5
starts combined, and his owner will be taking the lines tonight - sticking with others
RACE 2 - (2) BAR COINS was sent off at 8/5 from Post 8 last week (despite his 20-1 ML listing) but was
hurt when a 75-1 shot (off 5 weeks) left inside of him, and then broke right in front of him on the first turn
(likely causing his own costly miscue) - he made a HUGE recovery, and was full of trot inside to 3/4s when
he ran over the top of the eventual winner, and sealed his fate with another break - as noted here previously,
this horse improved by about 15 lengths immediately upon moving to this successful young conditioner,
and he'll be mighty tough tonight without any mistakes. (6) THE AMERICAN EAGLE ships in off a major
dud in PA but assuming he can shrug that right off, his "normal" effort would make him a very solid player
here - logical player. (5) CREATIVE VENTURE was just 1 for 26 last year but he returned very sharp after
a long layoff, and has hit board in 5 of 6 starts this year - use in exotics. (3) MUSCLE DAN lost all chance
with an early miscue last week but he's normally good for a solid finish - may be able to rally for a good
piece. (1) TAP ME BLUE CHIP is usually a reliable weekly player but did disappoint of a pocket trip last
week - we'll see if she can bounce back quickly. (4) WANIA wasn't bad last time but he does tend to
disappoint more often than he delivers.
RACE 3 - (2) OAKWOODNITOWNIT IR is clearly NOT in his "top class" form right now, but it's not like
he's been "bad" either - he not only drops to the bottom level here, he also catches a field with a shortage of
actual "sharp" players- would be hard to go against him here, even at a tiny price. (5) FREQUENT IMAGE
got too hot in his YR debut (racing off a bad date) and tired badly- he was MUCH better in his last, though,
and could be the biggest threat to the top choice. (1) HOMESTRETCH WES didn't win in his first start for
the Dynamic Duo (he was 2nd) but he did win his next - steps up considerably now, but still should be able
to handle most of these. (3) RANDOM HANOVER has been struggling for some time but debuts for a new
barn tonight and that at least gives him license to improve. (4) STATE SENATOR was terrible for weeks
but did race better in his last PcD, albeit in a cheap class- we'll see if he can build off that (6) HES GONNA
GETYA usually struggles when he draws outside - maybe he can rally for minor spoils? (7) TWO FACED
draws Post 7 off a sick scratch...usually not a recipe for success
RACE 4 - (1) DAHLQUIST HANOVER struggled in a couple of stakes engagements in NJ but found the
local NW4 group more to his liking last week, using a patient drive to kick home strong for the victory -
meets some (tough?) new opponents tonight, but still deserves the narrow nod from the pole. (3) HARDRO
CKCAFE went off favored 3X recently (out of town) and came up with 2 wins and a 2nd - he should be a
good fit here, picks up Bartlett for his local debut and could be a legitimate player (note - his dad, ROCK
OF CASHEL, is still racing)! (5) DOUBLE DIPPIN showed some promise at 2 before getting turned out
for the year - has come back good at 3, picking up 2 wins and a 2nd before struggling a bit vs. stakes foes in
his last....he fits well for sure, but the missed time (after a sick scratch) is a concern. (7) ROSE RUN YA
NKEE has a pair of breaks here this year but also has 2 wins and a 2nd from the 3 races he stayed trotting -
worth at least a look at that 15-1 ML price. (2) HEADOVERBOOTS AS had everything go his way last
week and still couldn't hold off #1 to the wire - he always "figures", but there's a reason he's 0 for 18 this
year (with 11 seconds!) - tough one to use on top at a short price. (4) AVACAKES was 76-1 last week (after
missing 5 weeks) but left hard anyway - ended up making a break and hurting a couple of other players,
besides leaving herself with no chance - sticking with others, for now. (6) LIVINGONTHERAIL would be
a big surprise, to say the least
RACE 5 - (1) ABRUZZO was actually very good 2 back (racing conservatively off a break the week
before) so it was hardly a surprise to see him jog in his last - he faces a few better ones tonight, but the
talent is there (when he behaves) - may be able to make it 2 in a row. (6) NO MAS DRAMA has been
going solid miles in NW30000 and gets some class relief for tonight - no luck with the draw, but still has to
be respected against these. (4) SWEET SOUL DAVID wasn't at his best 2 back and was clearly no good at
all last week - he drops back in the box pretty quickly (for a very sharp outfit), and may be ready to bounce
back to top form...would give him a look here if the price is right. (5) SOUTHWIND ARTURO has been
solid all year long, and comes into this off a pair of 3rds at this level- chance for another good piece tonight
(2) STREET GOSSIP has been climbing back up the class ladder thanks to some good recent efforts -
prefer others, but could see him grabbing a minor share with the good draw. (3) WINDSONG PIONEER
was 2nd after cutting the mile 2 back, then a front end winner last week - faces better now, and figures to
struggle a bit with these. (8) B NICKING has the ABILITY to win at this level, but may need a lot better
spot to do so - hard to see him finding a decent trip from out here. (7) WILLY WALTON has been solid
lately, but vs. a bit easier - he was hurt by the draw last week, and that may be the case tonight as well
RACE 6 - (2) IN MY DREAMS is a streaky horse that's definitely feeling pretty good right now - he hasn't
WON in this class in a while, but may have landed in a field where he can come out on top. (5) LINDSEYS
PRIDE perked up after the 6/22 claim and raced well all through the "Pop Up" Series - would probably
have been the top choice here had he not been idle since 6/21 (he MAY be ready, but it's hard to know for
sure). (7) BRAVE BY DESIGN is 0 for 7 at Yonkers but did race well in several of those starts - he returns
off a pair of Pocono victories, and his eternally hot barn sent out a few particularly fired up performers the
other night - chance, even from Post 7. (6) CRESCENT BEAUTY comes in two versions and clearly we
didn't see the "good" one last week - Yannick fills in tonight (as Bongiorno has to drive #7), and she's worth
considering if the price is juicy enough. (3) GRINDER may be on the cheaper side but he's raced well here
a few times in the past, and may be able to grab himself a piece of this. (1) JULA MAGICIAN had a couple
of good starts upon arrival from The Meadows and gets major post relief here - he does seem a notch below
the main players, however. (8) TOCCOA FALLS raced "ok" in a pair of starts since being returned to our
leading trainer - faces a tough task from Post 8 tonight. (4) BIZET just hasn't been all that sharp lately -
would look much better in a softer spot.
RACE 7 - (5) BEACON BEACH was sent off at 3/5 for his local debut but wasn't able to hold off the
tripsitter and had to settle for 2nd (the winner did hail from a live trotting barn, and did show wins out of
town over the half) - he deserves a chance to make amends, but definitely not one to bet the rent money on
at a very short price. (6) STRATEGIC could be a very live player in here, and can certainly race much
better than his 12-1 ML price suggests - he shipped in showing some shaky lines but did race well in both
local starts. (4) BRAYDEN VICTORIES was sent off at less than 4/5 for his local debut but gave way
badly on the final turn and was a well beaten 3rd (trotting his final half in 1:01.3) - too soon to just give up
on him, but also tough to take another short price. (2) POP POPS TOMMY was wildly overbet when he
won 4 starts back at even money, and he hasn't come close to winning in his 3 starts since then - wouldn't
be a complete shock here, but he's still tough to consider for the top slot. (1) MY BELFAST ANGEL has
the rail and Gingras but has really shown little in her 8 local tries. (3) BANGIN IN THE HALL is 13-0-1-0
at Yonkers and made a break last week
RACE 8 - (4) STORMY KROMER has hit board in all but one start since 4/20, with almost being 1st or
2nd - incredibly he wasn't assigned Post 6 in here, and that should make his job that much easier...remains
the one to beat. (3) NOWS THE MOMENT ended 2022 in raging form and came back the same way in
2023 - he was scratched injured on 4/27 than was on the shelf until 7/30 before re-qualifying - he jogged at
Cumberland in his first start back, but it would be hard to predict whether or not he's ready to knock off #4.
(6) HL REVADON broke (unexpectedly) on 7/20 then was dull on 8/3....but he looked like his "Open" self
last week, destroying a NW30000 field - not impossible. (1) ALL CHAMPY is just tough as nails and races
well in any class, with any trip, for any barn....but the Open level MAY be just a little steep, even for him.
(2) NEWSBOY is very good right now, but unproven at this top level - sticking with others, for now. (5)
OH BOY is once again forced to draw with the outside horses and it's just unfathomable why that is - at
least a win comes off the bottom of his card and he can start dropping in classes next week
RACE 9 - (6) FOREVER FAV's last line doesn't look too good on paper but the winner did win by 8
lengths, and this guy was hopelessly trapped from the final turn to the wire (with no chance at all to pace) -
this is the softest field he's faced in ages, and he should have a big chance here with any decent trip. (2)
SWEET TROY shows a little better form in his last couple in Ohio, has some back class and moves to a
barn that has done ok with these types in the past- maybe he can come up with a good one in his YR debut?
(4) GO DANCING A was "meh" at best in his 2 local starts but does get Bartlett tonight, giving him at least
a chance to improve - not impossible. (7) BLUE OCEAN is 5-0-0-0 in his Yonkers starts but usually faced
better than this- his current (NJ) form is fairly uninspiring, and he draws Post 7 for a barn that has struggled
here this year. (5) GINGRAS BEACH picked up an easy trip 2nd two back but has otherwise disappointed
in most of his starts - maybe if the price is big enough. (3) RISKY MILLION has just one start since 2/11
and it wasn't a good one - will just observe, for now. (1) AINT HE SPECIAL hasn't been competitive for
months - not sure the rail will help his cause nearly enough
RACE 10 - (2) PRESTIGE SEELSTER had issues in his first and most recent local tries but had a pair of
good efforts in between - he seems destined to just sit an easy pocket trip tonight, and that may be the ticket
to finding the winner's circle. (1) MAXIMUS RED A won the ONLY start he made away from Yonkers this
year...which is ironic since he's 0 for 19 here at the Hilltop in '23 - was solid last week when 3rd, and the
one to beat (in this weak field) tonight....but he's far too unreliable to ever take a very short price on top. (6)
ICE HOUSE is 0 for 17 this year but had hints of life in a couple of starts - maybe one to consider if
looking for a bomb. (3) HEISMAN PLAYER is 1 for 22 this year and only throws a big one here and there
- not impossible, but he'll be too short a price to get excited about a wager. (4) AMBITIOUSBEACHBOY
is an even going sort in the NW4 class...but that may help him grab a minor share with these. (5) PROVOC
ATIVEPRINCEN hasn't even picked up a check in ages - a total wake up call would be needed. (7) MR KE
LLY has been away since December and was 7-0-0-0 here in 2022. (8) BRANQUINHO missed all of 2022,
and has just ONE 5th place check from his 9 starts this year
RACE 11 - (2) ABBEY D got lost in the back of a 1:51.3 Open mile at Scioto last week but has some
pretty sharp form prior to that - lands with sharp connections for her YR debut and we'll give her a shot to
beat the locals in her first try. (5) EPOS OSTERVANG DK is 0 for 10 this year but hit board 7X and has
been a very solid performer in this class - a good trip puts him right there. (4) MISSION VOYAGE was a
solid 3rd last week off a sick scratch and qualifier - have to give the barn an extra look tonight after seeing
some of their performers earlier this week. (1) GAELIHILL has to be respected (speed, rail, and Yannick)
but he was definitely quite opportunistic in that last victory - could be a bit vulnerable tonight. (7) VALI
HANOVER has been claimed the last 4 starts but despite racing well, was unable to win any of them - may
run into a tough trip from out here, but still worth considering if the price drifts up. (6) FOR A DREAMER
can win at this level...but may need to start from a better spot to do so. (3) SMALLTOWNTHROWDOWN
will be handled by his owner tonight - we'll pass, while listening for any late driver changes.