The Empire Report - Thursday, December 15, 2022 - Race Analysis
RACE 1 - (8) A ONE A changed barns, added Lasix, and picked up a pair of 3rds since then - gets Gingras
on board for tonight, and he's just one of many with a chance in this tough to decipher Thurs. Night opener.
(4) KNIGHTS GUARD added hopples for his 2nd start in a new barn last week and picked up a 2nd at
Chester - eligible to keep improving, and be a player tonight. (5) FRANKIE HILL has probably shown the
most of these, and ships in having hit board in 5 of his last 6 - he's clearly a threat to come out on top but
he's also listed at 2-1 ML....a tough price to take (on top) for a horse that's just 1 for 24 (with 13 3rds)! (1)
FORREST seems pretty ordinary and did weaken in the stretch off a pocket trip in his YR debut - that
being said, he'll likely get to control the action tonight against a field of questionable foes, and that does
make him a threat to beat these. (2) BLUEBIRD BOWSER added hopples for a new trainer, qualified well
and raced well (once) but then reverted to bad habits, and made back to back breaks - iffy, for sure. (3)
SQUABLE has just one win and two 2nds from his 46 career starts - usually stays flat, and beats the
breakers. (7) HECKRAISER HANOVER is probably close talent-wise to a lot of these but he might have
inspired a bit more confidence had he not made a break in NJ last week. (6) BANGIN IN THE HALL
almost won here on 8/18 but Bartlett drove that night - hard to like off his recent form (from Post 6)
RACE 2 - (5) PENCILS DOWN was racing ok up in Canada so it was no surprise to see him do well right
off the bat for his new local connections - ships in off a win at The Swamp, gets Bartlett in the bike and
looms the one to beat in her YR debut....but she also figures to be heavily backed! (7) COUNT JOGGING
gave his fans a good root last week, still sitting into the stretch (at 66-1) before tiring a bit and making a
break - he'll be another good price tonight but clearly he has some speed, and may be worth including in
exotics. (4) LIVINGONTHERAIL figured to regress after leaving one of the top barns in the nation but
actually came up very good last week when 2nd best to the ultra well meant winner - have to consider for a
piece here off that nice effort. (6) HL MAMMOTH finally picked up his first local win 2 back (5th attempt)
but threw a total clunker last week - have to believe it wasn't a major issue (he's back in the box quickly),
but he still seems a little iffy off that mile. (8) HEADOVERBOOTS AS has the ABILITY to be right there
with these but he's made breaks in 2 of his last 3, and figures to get away near the back even if he behaves-
ok to use for a small share. (3) JESSIES OUTLAWED raced well here (and everywhere) in 2021 but this
year has been a struggle, just 10-0-0-1 locally and 0 for 25 overall - hard to recommend right now. (1) EXC
HEQUER is now 1 for 34 at YR over the last 2 years, and has started to make breaks (twice in the last 3
starts) - sticking with others, despite his good draw. (2) FAMOUS DAN didn't even function in his local
debut - he's capable of much better, but not going to GUESS as to whether a quick reversal is coming here
RACE 3 - (1) SARAHS LILLY drops back down to the level she beat on 10/13, draws best and reunites
with Bartlett....the last driver to win with her - solid chance! (3) VEL DONNA is 0 for 9 here this year but
raced well several times, including a head loss in this class back on 9/1 - likes to be on/near the lead and
has a pilot that enjoys racing that very same way - could be in the hunt tonight. (8) ITS MESMERISE N
drops down from the 50s and was sneaky sharp in her last 2 starts - might have been the top choice from a
better post but she still may have a chance from out here, with some trip luck...that 20-1 ML price does
make her worth considering. (7) ROBYN CAMDEN was used hard for the top last week and paid for it late
in the mile - faces a potentially awful trip from this spot tonight, but she's definitely better than a lot of
these - include in exotics. (4) LIGHTNING LEIA picked up her first local win last week with a front end
score vs. cheaper - she can probably hang with these too, but that 9/5 ML price has us looking elsewhere
for the top slot. (5) LADYBELUCKYTONITE is just 1 for 32 here this year but hit board in 13 of those
losses - chance for a small piece, depending on the trip. (6) THUNDRA hung horribly 2 back but raced
much better when 2nd last week - would have liked her chances better with an inside draw. (2) SCANDALI
CIOUS has just been racing evenly for minor pieces - more of the same tonight?
RACE 4 - (1) PAPPARDELLE looked like a "decent" 3YO for much of the year but appears to have really
elevated his game since joining up with the Dynamic Duo, delivering a mega-blowout qualifier followed by
last week's very impressive NW7 blowout - he'll take on older foes tonight, but is acting like a horse that's
ready for it. (3) HAT TRICK MARLEAU is hard to gauge tonight - he's at a level where he has to be
considered very dangerous, but he's also been idle for a month - perhaps the tote board will offer some
help? (5) HOOLIE N HECTOR has developed into a rock solid 4YO, and he's been delivering sharp miles
for a few months now - his barn is also really clicking right now, and this guy should absolutely be used on
some tickets. (6) SHARE THE WEALTH disappointed here 3 starts down when he weakened to 3rd off a
pocket trip but he was a solid rallying 2nd in his next, before crushing a (softer) field up at Batavia -
include him underneath. (4) NO DRAMA PLEASE can definitely go with this type but his last few starts at
Fhd. look a little discouraging - maybe the switch to Dube will help perk him back up a bit? (2) BIZET
used the class drop and front end to come with the victory last week, but is likely to be looking at only a
smaller piece in this field. (8) B NICKING has the ability to trot with even better than these, but faces an
unpredictable trip from Post 8 - leaning towards others, but not a bad stab for longshot fans. (7) PALERMO
HANOVER had big years at 2 and 3, earning $273K - exits a very sharp barn, however, and the 3YO filly
faces a tall task from Post 7 taking on seasoned, older male foes
RACE 5 - (6) BRILLIANT BEAUTY is listed at 20-1 ML but that seems awfully high considering she just
beat this class (in PA) 3 starts back - she raced well here at Yonkers (vs. better) in a couple of starts in June,
and seems like a good value play for tonight. (3) BETTERB CHEVRON N was handled aggressively vs.
better last week but she wasn't quite up for it and it backfired - drops tonight, should still be a fair price, and
may have better luck against these. (1) FIGHTING EVIL (new trainer listed for tonight) is hard to endorse
on top (0 for 16 here last 2 years) but a good trip should be coming her way, and she definitely could take
home a decent slice. (4) ALWAYS B MIMI improved quickly after being claimed in Sept. but leveled off
after getting up too high in class - was a winner over cheaper 2 back, but it's a little tough to nail down her
"proper" level right now - may be okay with these. (2) SPORTS FLIX suddenly got very good for a few
starts but it does look like she's come quickly back to earth - we'll see if an easy trip from this spot can help
her turn things back around. (7) APRIL AVA was an "ok" 4th last week but from a better spot - she's
winless in her last 19 starts here, and the outside draw figures to hurt her even more. (8) EDGE OF ETERN
ITY fits nicely with these, but is stuck with Post 8 - if you think Stratton might try to send her, by all means
consider a play (at what figures to be a big price). (5) MILLWOOD BONNIE landed on a perfect trip and
was able to reverse form in last week's (overbet) victory - may find these a bit tougher, however
RACE 6 - (2) UP HELLY AA compiled a 21-17-2-2 record in The Maritimes and that attracted one of the
game's best known owners to dip in and purchase him - he debuts tonight for one of the sharpest barns
around, and the guess is that he'll fit very nicely with these - we'll hop on board and see what he's got. (1)
DRIBBLING BI can be a bit inconsistent but anything close to his best effort would make him a big player
from this spot - getting Bartlett certainly won't hurt. (3) MYCROWNMYKINGDOM has been an overall
disappointment since arriving from Canada six starts back but he's had a couple of bright moments - still
feels like a work in progress, but his best effort puts him in the hunt here. (6) NANCY BAR feels a little
cheap on paper but she's getting a big barn change for tonight, and is eligible to deliver a bigger effort -
consider for exotics if the price is decent. (5) MUSCLEDOVER disappointed in his first 2 starts off the
barn change but did put in an improved effort for 3rd last week in his YR debut - we'll see if he can keep
heading in the right direction. (4) SEVENSHADESOFGREY hasn't won in a long time but does pick up his
share of smaller pieces - one of several in here with a chance at a share....if the trip goes his way. (8) CIEL
BLEU is normally handled very conservatively by Lachance, saving his best for last - figures to race the
same way tonight, but may be too far back to do any real damage. (7) THE BOSS MAN may prefer to be in
a little easier....and Post 7 won't make tonight's task any easier
RACE 7 - (2) FLIP THE SWITCH was handled conservatively in his first start for the new barn last week
and kicked home full of trot for 3rd - none of the former horses of our former leading trainer have been able
to win yet for their new barns but this guy may very well be the first - just hoping he goes off at a better
price than his ML might suggest! (3) TIMESTORM looked very good beating this class 3 and 5 starts back
- he did make a break after leaving last week, and that makes him at least a bit of a question mark for
tonight - that 7-1 price does look appealing, however. (1) SECRET BRO was no match for a razor sharp
NOWS THE MOMENT last week but he did hold 2nd (and was a winner the week before)- very live threat
from the pole. (8) SMOKING JET certainly hasn't thrived at Yonkers the way he did in Ohio, but it's not
like he's been terrible - brutal spot tonight, but a chance for a nice price for anybody that thinks one of his
big efforts could be coming here. (7) BARN HALL can hold his own with these for sure, but will be at a
distinct disadvantage with the outside draw - maybe can find a way to grab a piece. (5) HOMER HALL
broke a long string of 2nds with that win 2 back but found the competition a little tougher last week and
was well back in 4th - may struggle a bit tonight, as well. (6) KINDA LUCKY LINDY has been
ultra-reliable for a long stretch, but mostly vs, a bit easier- he's also ust 1 for 25 here this year (lots of 2nds
and 3rds), and will look better when he finds an easier spot. (4) WINDSONG PIONEER threw a dud at
Fhd, last week and catches a very tough field for his Hilltop return
RACE 8 - (6) HEY LIVVY was forced to take back to 8th last week, but was really hurt when forced to
grab up and follow weak cover on the back side - she still was full of trot at the end, and her overall recent
form has been excellent - chance for a mild upset here with some better trip luck. (7) REFINED got some
class relief shipping in last week, worked a bit for the lead from Post 7 then was able to dig in gamely
through the lane to preserve the victory - may or may not get to cut the mile again tonight, but she remains
a big threat regardless. (5) GREY looked like she MIGHT be finally starting to tail but bounced back with a
big one last week, giving REFINED all she could handle - could be right there again. (3) QUEEN OF ALL
benefited from a ground saving trip last to pick up 3rd, but she's a legitimate player with these more often
than not - ok to include underneath. (4) KENZIESKY HANOVER was sitting comfortably in 3rd when she
just broke last week - assuming she behaves tonight, she'll have a chance to grab a piece. (1) PLUMB is
actually pretty good right now, but sometimes loses momentum on the final turn that costs her a chance at
bigger pieces - always worth throwing in for 3rd/4th. (2) TAD KRAZY HANOVER returns sharp from KY
and NJ, but she'll have to prove that she can do as well against these types
RACE 9 - (1) UPTOWN LADY N has been holding her own vs. better across the river, and has raced well
here (in limited action) in the past - draws best in a very modest basement field, and is in a good spot to
pick up a "W". (5) ST LADS BIJOU was no factor in her local debut but that was from a bad post - she has
more options tonight, and may be able to make a bit more noise. (6) ELLEOFADELI shows mixed form at
best but she raced ok here a couple of times, and Yannick may be able to find her a manageable trip - use
underneath (4) CHELSKI ships back in from PA showing some "steady" recent form, but that 9/5 ML price
is definitely a turnoff - throw in for 3rd.4th. (2) IDEAL CHIP couldn't threaten the top two last week but
did pick up a 3rd using Lasix for the first time - perhaps she can take home another small slice? (7) HEY
HEY DBAY is at a level she can handle but came up empty last week, and lands outside again tonight - not
sure this is the spot for a wake up call (3) ODDS ON VETO POWER just seems a little cheap, even against
this pretty modest competition. (8) BETTOR B SAWYER figures to have a hard time reaching from Post 8
RACE 10 - (2) SOUTHWIND ARTURO did some good work in NJ last year before finishing the season in
The Maritimes....where he ended his year with a 1:58.3 win -- the first sub 2:00 victory for a 2YO in their
history - had some trouble getting his 3YO season in gear (in Canada) but he came to life again when sent
back to The Maritimes, winning in a track record 1:57.3, and easily handling UP HELLY AA in the process
- ships back down riding an impressive winning streak, and we'll look for him to handle these locals as well
(5) CREATE MYSTIQUE shipped in with some strong Ohio form and was able to deliver here as well,
beating this class with a first over move - no reason he shouldn't be good again. (1) PORTOFINO was
heavily backed from Post 7 for her local debut, made the top easily enough but was worn down by #5 and
weakened to 3rd - we'll see if she'll be sharper starting from the pole. (3) SAID N DONE AS is 6-2-0-3
since arriving here recently and continues to behave himself - include in exotics. (8) FIFTINI followed up a
narrow loss three back with victories (at good prices) in his last pair - he's no doubt razor sharp, but may
face a few obstacles starting from Post 8. (6) B THREEWINDS grabbed a win and a 2nd in his first 2 local
tries (NW2) but wasn't overly impressive - still has to prove he can hang with these better ones. (4) SAULS
GOOD took no $$ and broke in his local debut - just observing, for now. (7) AVACAKES draws poorly
after being away for a month - good week just to watch, and take notes